Laurie Freeman, a second-year M.P.A. student at the Woodrow Wilson School, has authored an article for the January-March 2008 issue of Foreign Affairs en Español, titled “Déjà vu: La política antidrogas en la relación México-Estados Unidos.” (“Déjà Vu: Drug Policy on the US-Mexico Border.”)

The article analyzes the likely impact of the Merida Initiative, the Bush administration’s proposed $1.4 billion anti-drug aid package for Mexico.  The Merida Initiative’s overall aim is to reduce the asymmetry between the Mexican security forces and drug traffickers armed with sophisticated weapons and equipment. The first installment of the package, $500 million worth of equipment and training for the Mexican security forces, is currently being considered by Congress. 

Freeman writes, “While the attention Mexico is receiving is long overdue, as well as the rhetorical recognition that the US and Mexico are in this together, the Merida Initiative is unlikely to reduce drug trafficking, violence, or corruption.”  This is because the Merida Initiative “fails to address the main factor fueling the drug trade – the demand for illegal drugs by millions of Americans – and it does not address the structural reforms necessary for strengthening law enforcement and judicial institutions in Mexico.”

She acknowledges that the Merida Initiative may achieve some short-term successes – such as temporary disruptions in the drug market or arrests and extraditions of traffickers.  Yet she argues that such “successes” may actually lead to more violence: “A blow to one cartel becomes a business opportunity for another, and the winner uses violence to establish control over new routes.”

Freeman describes a previous attempt by the US government to train and equip Mexican security forces to combat drug cartels.  She writes that a decade ago, the “Pentagon devised a program to train and equip thousands of Mexican special forces soldiers known as GAFES to serve as ‘combat-ready shock troops to attack drug cartels.’  …  GAFES were deployed throughout Mexico to investigate and apprehend drug traffickers. …  But it didn’t take long for some of these elite soldiers to become corrupt and abusive,” like the police they were meant to replace.

According to Freeman, “The most damaging byproduct of the GAFE plan became evident years later.  In 2002, several dozen GAFE deserters began working for the Gulf cartel as eavesdroppers and enforcers. Known as the Zetas, their inside knowledge of the Mexican security forces and their expertise with sophisticated weaponry, surveillance techniques, and operational planning gave Gulf cartel leader Osiel Cárdenas an edge over his competitors” – as well as law enforcement institutions.  The Zetas have terrorized border cities like Nuevo Laredo, which has seen homicide rates skyrocket as a result.

According to Freeman, reducing drug trafficking and related violence in Mexico will require serious action on both sides of the border.  “To help Mexico reduce drug trafficking and related violence and corruption,” she recommends that “an effective US anti-drug aid package should focus on three issues: drug demand reduction; comprehensive police and judicial reform; and the illegal arms trade.”  Police and judicial reform efforts “should increase transparency and strengthen internal and external control mechanisms, so that the institutions, the public, the media, and policymakers can monitor police performance, ensure accountability, and be on guard for evidence of corruption.”